Romney spins. Santorum spins. But the Bitemaster explains it all to you.

Romney says he’s got it all locked up. Santorum says Romney is a big fat fibber. (Romney, Santorum camps at odds over delegate math – CNN Political Ticker – CNN.com Blogs.)

The New York Times shows the delegate count but doesn’t explain the implications.

But the Bitemaster explains the math:

  • Total delegates: 2287
  • Romney has about 415
  • All other candidates have about 330
  • Total delegates committed (total of Romney and others): about 745
  • Delegates remaining (total delegates minus committed delegates): about 1542

To win the convention on the first ballot, you need a majority of the total delegates

  • Delegates needed to win: 1144

Assume Romney wins just half the remaining delegates

  • Half the remaining 1542 delegates is 771
  • Add Romney’s 415 delegates
  • Which comes to 1186 delegates
  • Which is more than the 1144 needed to win the convention on the first ballot
  • QED

Here’s the delegate count from the New York Times: RepublicanDelegateCount-20120308
Current NY Times delegate count: http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/delegates

1 thought on “Romney spins. Santorum spins. But the Bitemaster explains it all to you.

  1. This is excerpted from the excelllent analysis at the Christian Post (http://www.christianpost.com/news/delegate-math-doesnt-add-up-for-santorum-71905/):

    “Santorum has few chances to pick up delegates in April. Romney is favored to win Maryland and Washington, D.C., on April 3, and Connecticut, Delaware, New York and Rhode Island on April 24. Santorum is only favored to win one state in April, his home state of Pennsylvania on the 24th. Wisconsin’s April 3 primary will likely be the most competitive state that month, but Romney is currently leading there in the polls.

    “Santorum will have a more favorable calendar in May, but the way that delegates are apportioned over the next two months creates a significant disadvantage for him.

    “Every state in April has a winner-take-all primary, but in May delegates are assigned proportionally. This means that in all the states favorable to Romney in April, Romney only needs to win a plurality of the vote and he will receive all the delegates for that state.

    “Then in May, Romney may not win the states favorable to Santorum, but he will still be able to pick up delegates. The number of delegates he receives will be, more or less, proportional to the percentage of the vote he receives (depending on how the delegates are assigned). Santorum will not, therefore, be able to narrow the gap by very much in May.

    “RealClearPolitics.com estimates that Romney currently has 560 delegates while Santorum has 246. If Romney wins all the states he is expected to win in April, that will bring him an additional 257 delegates, or just 327 delegates shy of the 1,144 need to clinch the nomination. He will likely pick up over half of those with California’s 172 delegates in its June 5 winner-take-all primary.”

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